Sunday, 14 August 2011

Volatility and average daily range



Flexibility is one of the demands during trading that needs to met,especially if your trading revert to the mean strategies like this one.For now the average daily range for eurgbp is around 100pips more or less.This is way much different than 2 -3 previous years.The range could exceeded 300 -600 pips. Back then during trading the drawdown could be so deep around 1000 pips or more.Just imagine if we add up every 100 pips ,that could mean 900 + 800 + 700 +600 +500 +400 +300 +200 +100 = -4500 Drawdown!!!! That is absolutely outrageous for us small traders.But if we add based on average daily range indicator (which varies and changes based on market) we could cut down some of our drawdown.What if we add every 500 pips or so for the above example,the drawdown is only 1500pips..still large but its based on that current market which is in chaos then.
Other ways to cut DD is use regression indicators or trendline.In our case,i prefer to use trendline since the accuracy is high,take your pick,would you suffer a dangerous DD -4500 or risk only 100 - 200 pips DD before getting to the TP goal? The answer is obvious. There's a reason why small accounts can thrive... We don't have the funds like national banks do , but we could manage the risk better. Just remember to add up based on the daily range .If the pairs retraces to 50% then that is our break even point.
But that is all the defensive part, what about the profit part which is everybody's goal? Pairs trading indeed have positive expectancy.Once the gap between pairs gets larger,the spread has consistently close the gap and more.That is why in my opinion this strategy has its merits. Even if it goes way into DD ,we will see the DD eliminated and finally see profit.If your are only targeting 50% or be you shouldnt be bother trading just to keep up with the losses.What is the point taking the pain without the gain?
I had seen a few mean reversion strategies trades,at best they only get break even.What a waste of time.The trade must move in our favor to gain + pips.

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